TTO

This script synthesizes the results for different domestic and international carbon policies in TTO. There are two groups of counterfactuals considered: changes in policies in all sectors and how this affects all GHG and changes in policies in only the EITE sectors (paper, petroleum and coke, chemical products, non-metallic minerals, iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, electricity) and how this affects CO2 emissions.

These results assume a social cost of carbon equal to $163 and a carbon price equal to $163 (click here to view the results at different carbon prices).

The countries we study are listed below. Each link will take you to an in-depth, country level analysis.

Our counterfactuals are split into two parts.

Part 1

CTF1: Setting tariffs to bilateral mean (Shapiro)

CTF2: Setting tariffs to OECD mean

CTF3: Carbon policy

CTF4: Carbon policy + CBAM

Part 2

CTF5: Large country coalition

CTF6: Large country coalition + developing country respond with equivalence

CTF7: Large country coalition + developing country respond without equivalence

TTO baseline description

In this section, we describe the baseline characteristics for TTO prior to any counterfactual policies.

Income

The sources of income can be broken down into 8 categories: Value added, deficits, and revenues from tariffs, production taxes, labor taxes, material taxes, and consumption taxes. The graph below depicts the different sources of income for TTO in the baseline.

Trade flows

This section describes the trade flows for TTO by sector and trade partners.

The graph below depicts the imports and exports by sector.

The first map below depicts from where TTO is importing from and the second map depicts to which country they are exporting to.

Final consumption

The graph below represents the final consumption shares for TTO in each sector.

Emissions

This section describes the level of emissions in TTO from the baseline. There are four greenhouse gasses we consider: CO2, CH4, N2O, and FGAS.The figure below reports the level of emissions disaggregated sector and type.

The figure below depicts the emissions intensities (tons of CO2 equivalent per dollar produced) from the combustion of to CO2 and from all GHG in the production process.

Part 1

Income

The figure below reports the % changes in the sources of income for TTO under each counterfactual policy.

The figure below reports how the income levels compare against the baseline level of income in TTO under each counterfactual policy.

The figure below reports the % change in real vs nominal income for TTO under each counterfactual policy.

Prices

The figure below reports the % change in the final price index for TTO under each counterfactual policy.

The figure below reports the % change in the sectoral price index for TTO under each counterfactual policy.

Trade flows

The figure below reports the % change in the trade flows for TTO under each counterfactual policy.

% Change in imports

The figure below reports the % change in the imports from each partner country for TTO under each counterfactual policy.

% Change in exports

The figure below reports the % change in the exports to each partner country for TTO under each counterfactual policy.

Emissions

The figure below reports the % change in the CO2 and GHG emissions for TTO under each counterfactual policy.

The figure below reports the % change in emissions for TTO under each counterfactual policy.

Welfare

The figure below reports the % change in welfare for TTO under each counterfactual policy.

Part 2

Income

The figure below reports the % changes in the sources of income for TTO under each counterfactual policy.

The figure below reports how the income levels compare against the baseline level of income in TTO under each counterfactual policy.

The figure below reports the % change in real vs nominal income for TTO under each counterfactual policy.

Prices

The figure below reports the % change in final price index for TTO under each counterfactual policy.

The figure below reports the % change in sectoral price index for TTO under each counterfactual policy.

Trade flows

The figure below reports the % change in sectoral price index for TTO under each counterfactual policy.

% Change in imports

The figure below reports the % change in the imports from each partner country for TTO under each counterfactual policy.

% Change in exports

The figure below reports the % change in the exports to each partner country for TTO under each counterfactual policy.

Emissions

The figure below reports the % change in CO2 and GHG emissions for TTO under each counterfactual policy.

The figure below reports the % change in emissions for TTO under each counterfactual policy.

Welfare

The figure below reports the % change in welfare for TTO under each counterfactual policy.